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Switzerland's inflation rate fell to 0.4% in January, while core inflation rose unexpectedly to 0.9%. Despite rising prices in certain sectors, the overarching disinflationary trend continues, prompting speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank in March. The future monetary policy direction remains uncertain, with discussions of negative rates and foreign exchange interventions.
Negative interest rates in Switzerland are deemed unlikely, as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) aims to avoid them despite external pressures from the European Central Bank. With low inflation and a stable domestic economy, there is no current crisis necessitating such measures, and existing low rates are already inflating the real estate market. The SNB's focus remains on managing monetary conditions without resorting to negative rates.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points in December, aiming to stabilize monetary conditions amid low inflation forecasts. While further cuts are possible, the SNB is cautious, with expectations of a potential reduction to 0.25 percent in March, influenced by the Swiss franc's strength and inflation trends. Fixed-rate mortgage rates have stabilized, reflecting a slight increase in swap rates across maturities.
Swiss business leaders express a mix of optimism and caution regarding Donald Trump's presidency. While some, like ABB's Peter Voser and investor Peter Friedli, highlight potential economic growth and deregulation, others, such as UBS's Sergio Ermotti, emphasize the need for careful financial oversight amid rising uncertainties. Overall, the sentiment reflects a complex landscape shaped by both immediate benefits and long-term risks.
Around 3,000 investors are seeking to recover billions lost in the Credit Suisse bailout, with legal actions underway in both Switzerland and the USA. The PUK report reveals that the AT1 bond write-off was a key part of the UBS acquisition deal, raising questions about its legality and the federal government's role. Plaintiffs argue that the bonds should not have been written off due to a liquidity issue, potentially leading to significant financial repercussions for UBS and the Swiss government.
Switzerland's National Bank (SNB) faces pressure to invest in Bitcoin as part of a popular initiative advocating for constitutional changes to enhance financial sovereignty. Despite past rejections, the growing influence of Bitcoin advocates, including billionaires, suggests a potential shift in the SNB's stance amid rising global interest in cryptocurrencies. The canton of Zug, dubbed "Crypto Valley," continues to thrive as a hub for digital currency investment, attracting both private banks and wealthy investors.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a profit of approximately CHF 80 billion for the 2024 financial year, driven by CHF 67 billion from foreign currency positions and CHF 21.2 billion from gold holdings. Following a balance sheet profit of CHF 16 billion, the SNB will distribute CHF 3 billion to the Confederation and cantons, with two-thirds allocated to the cantons.
Switzerland is considering a proposal to add Bitcoin to its national reserves alongside gold, backed by ten crypto advocates. The initiative, requiring 100,000 signatures within 18 months, aims to amend the Swiss Constitution to allow the Swiss National Bank to hold Bitcoin. Despite the push, concerns over Bitcoin's volatility and energy use persist among financial authorities.
The current Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Martin Schlegel, expressed a preference for nationalizing Credit Suisse rather than selling it to UBS, contrasting with the views of his predecessor Thomas Jordan and Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter. This disagreement was revealed by a parliamentary commission of inquiry. Schlegel has held the SNB presidency since October 2024.
National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel advocated for the nationalization of Credit Suisse, opposing the takeover by UBS favored by then National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan and Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter. This disagreement was revealed by the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry.
Martin Schlegel
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